Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen
Two things are for sure about the August 7 presidential candidate ticket race of the New Patriotic Party (NPP). Like the 2008 race, August 7 will be a straight fight between Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo and Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen. Also, the situations of influential personalities within the party, the permutations of their aggregates and the alignment of forces they represent are and are different from what they were prior the congress in 2008.
While Ti-Kelenkelen must admit that it is not easy to predict the winner, I must nevertheless concede that there are observable patterns. So, what do these patterns say?
Soon after the NPP lost Election 2008 by less than one percent (about 60,000 votes) to the National Democratic Congress (NDC), they quickly conducted a forensic audit to unearth the factors responsible for that defeat. With the findings in hand, party elders went into a closed-door meeting to analyse the facts and make recommendations, and major among these was the decision to immediately start preparations for Election 2012.
That decision gave birth to the calling of a national conference in Accra in 2009 at which the party made wide precedent-setting changes to its constitution. One of such changes was the enlargement of the size of delegates that decide the party standard bearer from 1,500 to 115,000. That enlargement enfranchised polling station agents and other sections of the party grassroots.
Some political analysts suggested immediately that the enlargement points to a foregone conclusion, but there are other factors that play an equally or even greater decisive role in who wins August 7.
Consequent to the enlargement of the its Electoral College, the NPP held elections to elect regional and constituency officers, and that was followed by the grand election to elect members of the national executive. And businessman and advertising guru, Jake Obetsebi-Lamptey was elected National Chairman.
The August 7 date was set and preparations begun in earnest.
Prior to 2008, Nana Akufo-Addo was a clear favourite tipped to win with a margin more comfortable than he actually obtained. He had been in politics longer, even throughout the struggle against Rawlings’ dictatorship. However, in the last few weeks to the 2008 delegates’ congress, party sources say, personalities backing Alan Kyerematen engaged in what is now known in Ghanaian political science parlance as “moneycracy,” throwing money at those among the 1,500-large delegates deemed supporters of Akufo-Addo, and lubricating their choice with viscous promises of “lottery” cash if Kyerematen won.
At the congress, party people were shocked at the alacrity with which moneycracy did work – Kyerematen polled over 700 votes and Akufo-Addo got over 1000 votes, but short of the at least 1300 he needed to clinch the “one-touch” victory he had predicted. Indeed, it took a stunt pulled by then National Organiser, Lord Commey, to prevent what shrewd political analysts would have described as the most dramatic electoral defeat.
Lord Commey and others in the Akufo-Addo camp, who were closely monitoring voting at the 2008 Accra congress, had the sudden and shocking awakening to the sweeping effects of moneycracy, fast shifting votes to Kyerematen. Lord Commey thus made the open allegation that the Kyerematen camp was overtly sharing money at the congress grounds. This halted voting and nearly marred the congress. That stunt, party sources insist, threw a damper over the full possible influence of “moneycracy.”
After an inconclusive first round, Kyerematen conceded defeat, and in a rare disregard of its own constitution the NPP gave the ticket to a joyful Akufo-Addo. Today, the word is still out on the streets that Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo won the 2008 NPP presidential ticket on the leave of his arch-rival, Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen. And so this time around there is pressure on Akufo-Addo to win the presidential candidature by himself, neat and clean and one-touch.
Some party grassroots say the enlarged Electoral College is evidence that the party structure is largely behind Akufo-Addo. According to them, prior to the 2008 congress it is Akufo-Addo who first spoke to the welfare of the party’s grassroots, especially polling station agents and foot soldiers, who hitherto had been totally ignored by President Kufuor and his men and women.
Others however countered that it is Kyerematen, who when he visited the constituencies in 2008 prior to the delegates congress that year asked that polling station agents join the constituency executives for his meetings, while Akufo-Addo, when he went to the constituencies restricted his audience to only the latter set. They explained that when Kyerematen was doing that, Akufo-Addo’s men were hilarious calling him a novice to the game for targeting persons who had no votes at the delegates’ congress.
Throughout the Kufuor second term, newspapers were awash with polling station agents and party foot soldiers complaining of neglect by ministers and deputy ministers, who refused to see them (foot soldiers) even when they visited their (ministers’) offices. They complained about the policy of strict dichotomy of national administration from party that President Kufuor pursued in his eight years.
They were also livid about the fact that they, the grassroots activists of the party, who had fought since 1992 in all campaigns and eventually succeeded in getting Kufuor elected twice (2000 and 2004) have been utterly abandoned. The professionals among them complained of being denied contracts, and of being treated like lepers by people with whom they had, few years earlier, stood side-by-side in the trenches.
Moving on, there have been questions over how much influence Kufuor the ex-President has wielded on party activity prior to August 7. Those questions arose because as president he was very influential in the party prior to the 2008 delegates’ congress. Many have expected him to exert less influence on August 7, and argue that the NPP is a party of equals, unlike the NDC where Rawlings is the party and the party is Rawlings.
However the pragmatists counter with the argument that President Kufuor’s influence within the NPP had little to do with his position but all to do with the ability of him and those backing Kyerematen to splash money around – meaning Kufuor out of office could still be as influential today as he was as president as long as those “with” him have money.
Interestingly, party sources have told Ti-Kelenkelen that the enlargement of the Electoral College has nothing to do with appeasing foot soldiers for the neglect they complained about. It was done, they say, to diminish the possible effects of moneycracy on choosing a candidate for 2012 and beyond. The rationale, they explained, is to instill fairness in the process as a means of eventually ensuring unity after a candidate is chosen.
With the public outcry over the 17 candidates that contested the NPP presidential ticket clearly in mind the party, this time around, has only five aspirants. Apart from Akufo-Addo and Kyerematen, there are three other candidates. There is the former Chief Executive Officer of the Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital, Prof. Kwabena Frimpong-Boateng. There is also the former ambassador to Britain and currently Member of Parliament for Subin Constituency in the Ashanti Region, Isaac Osei. Then there is a pastor, Apostle Lawyer John Kwame Kodua.
It is essential to point out that in 2008, even with the 17 contestants, Akufo-Addo and Kyerematen, between them, polled about 80% of the total votes, and that is not expected to change very much for the August 7 polls.
And the key questions are: Who will remain standing with the largest number of votes to his credit after the votes are counted? Would that be enough to clinch a one-touch victory for that “lucky” aspirant?
Those are not easy questions even within party circles.
In 2008, the personal allegiances of party officials and key party personalities – at the constituency, regional and national levels – to the two protagonists in the NPP race were crucial to the decisive factors and patterns. Today, the NPP Electoral College has grown by almost 100%. And it is easy to say the large number of delegates that will make the crucial decision on August 7 will make complete nonsense of whatever effects current key personal allegiance can have on the ultimate outcome of the polls. But Ti-Kelenkelen can assure you that no one can vouch for that till the results start coming in from the polling stations and constituencies.
Some possibly decisive patterns are however certain even as at now. Aspirants, at least the key ones, have had ample time to do open campaigning. But since the delegates are spread throughout the country, there has also been ample time to invoke moneycracy wherever they have gone. There has also been adequate time to plan and perfect strategies for use on voting day; concepts that could easily be transformed into instant stunts for various effects on that D-Day.
Still, time is a bearer of the unexpected. Hence which of the above-listed factors would have the most effect on the delegates, and what their combined effects would be and how these would swing votes are nowhere near easy to predict.
In a nutshell, it remains to be seen what effect the party’s electoral experiment would have on the factors it was intended to control. And of course, who, as they say in prize fighting, will remain the last man standing after August 7.